Winter Simulation Conference, 2025
Argonne National Laboratory
2025-12-08
\[ \mathrm{MP}_t^{(j)} = P_t^{(j)} - H_t^{(j)} - D_t^{(j)}, \qquad j \in \mathcal{J}. \]
\(M\): mixing matrix \[ M = (m_{ij}), \qquad \sum_{j \in \mathcal{J}} m_{ij} = 1 \ \forall i, \]
\[ \mathrm{MP}_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)} = \sum_{i \in \mathcal{J}} m_{ij}\,\mathrm{MP}_t^{(i)}, \quad S_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)} = \sum_{i \in \mathcal{J}} m_{ij}\,S_t^{(i)}, \quad I_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)} = \sum_{i \in \mathcal{J}} m_{ij}\,I_t^{(i)}. \]
\[ \lambda_{s,t}^{(j)} = \beta_s \frac{I_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)}}{\mathrm{MP}_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)}}, \qquad \lambda_{v,t}^{(j)} = \beta_v \frac{I_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)}}{\mathrm{MP}_{t,\text{eff}}^{(j)}}. \]
Important
\[\text{probability of being infected:} \quad p_{\mathrm{SE}}^{(j)} = 1 - \exp\!\big(-\lambda_{s,t}^{(j)} \,\Delta t\big) \\ \text{New infections:} \quad \Delta E_t^{(j)} = p_{\mathrm{SE}}^{(j)}\,S_t^{(j)}\]
Population initialization
Vaccination
Mixing matrices
Person demographics and household composition are derived from multiple sources, including U.S. census data.
Places include schools, workplaces, households, nursing homes and hospitals.
Agent activity schedules are derived from the American Time Use Survey and the Panel Study of Income dynamics.
Macal et al. (2018)
Contact network emerges from hour-by-hour co-location of agents
Aggregate
Macal et al. (2018)
run_id: age-stratified
population_data:
mapping: demographic_mapping.csv
initialization: population_init.csv
vaccination: vaccination.csv
mixing_matrix:
weekday_day: m_wd_d.csv
weekday_night: m_wd_n.csv
weekend_day: m_we_d.csv
weekend_night: m_we_n.csv
disease_params:
ts: 0.5
tv: 0.3
ve : 0.5
dv: 158
dp: 1
de: 3
da: 5
ds: 6
dh: 4
dr: 187
pea: 0.333
psr: 0.95
phr: 0.97
sub_disease_params:
age:
0-17:
ts: 0.5
tv: 0.1
pea: 0.1
psr: 0.99
18-64:
ts: 0.5
tv: 4
pea: 0.1
psr: 0.99
65+:
ts: 0.5
tv: 7
pea: 0.3
psr: 0.97
simulation_config:
start_date: 10/01/2023 # m/d/Y
length: 200